Behavioural economics · Complex systems · Decision science

Get the irreversible decision right.

Rubicona is a research-led advisory in behavioural economics and decision science — for the high-stakes calls you make once, under deep uncertainty.

Founded by two senior researchers in behavioural economics and decision science.

decision threshold deliberate commit evidence → confidence
Peer-reviewed research published in
PNAS· Nature Communications· Cognition· PLOS ONE· British Journal of Psychology· npj Ocean Sustainability
20+
years of frontier research
3
books authored by the principals
30+
peer-reviewed papers
6
top-journal venues, incl. PNAS & Nature

Our thesis

Every consequential choice is an act of valuation under uncertainty.

Pricing a risk, allocating capital, setting policy, designing a product, deploying AI — each is a decision made with incomplete information and predictable human bias. The structure of a choice shapes its outcome as much as the facts do.

We bring together the behavioural science of how people judge value and the computational machinery to measure it and act on it — diagnosing where decisions go wrong and redesigning them so the better outcome becomes the natural one.

Read our approach →

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Where we help

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Gather enough, then commit.

The hard part of a high-stakes decision isn't the analysis — it's knowing when you've learned enough to act.

We make that line explicit, weighing the value of more information against the cost of waiting, so the call to cross or wait is made on purpose. It is the difference between deciding well and deciding late.

Read the note →

enough to decide diminishing returns Information gathered → Decision quality

Illustrative. Past a point, more information barely improves the decision — but always delays it.

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The principals

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From our notes

Tell us about the decision you need to get right.

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